Margaret Roberts' Lecture Small Yard, High Fence? The Impact of US-China Tensions on the Reallocation of International Students in US Higher Education

One of the most critical recent developments in the global economy is how U.S.-China tensions are reshaping cross-border economic integration. To date, however, our understanding of its impact has been mainly limited to international trade and finance, as opposed to migration. To fill this gap, we explore the effect of recent tensions on international student flows to the United States that are critical to U.S. higher education, knowledge production, and the broader economy. We construct a unique granular dataset that combines the universe of international students in the United States from 2000--2021 with specific information about their institution and novel measures of the sensitivity of students' study fields. Using a series of difference-in-differences and triple-differences designs, we find that tensions have not had a uniform effect on students across states, institutions and fields of study. Instead, we show that tensions have shifted international students from China toward private institutions in blue states, and away from sensitive fields, particularly at the PhD level. The findings reveal new patterns of uneven international student decline in recent years and extend policy debates on technology security and export controls to cross-border human capital barriers. (Authors: Keng-Chi Chang, Ruixue Jia, Steven Liao, Margaret E. Roberts) --- Event Details: https://my.princeton.edu/rsvp?id=1944768