Pessimistic Future Outlook and Reluctance Toward Marriage and Childbearing in China

Recent scholarship in family demography has emphasized the importance of incorporating individuals' perceptions of the future into understanding their marriage and fertility decisions. A separate body of emerging research has drawn attention to a rising pessimistic outlook for the future among ordinary citizens in China. Bridging these two lines of work, the current study draws on three Chinese national surveys conducted in 2012-2022 to examine the relationship between individuals' future outlook and their marriage and childbearing intentions. Across the three surveys, we find consistent evidence that pessimism - about the economy, societal development, and the future more broadly - is associated with lower intentions to marry and higher intentions to remain childless. Given recent socioeconomic changes, such as the post-COVID-19 economic slowdown, the housing market downturn, and rising youth unemployment, pessimism about the future is likely to grow further among China's citizens. Efforts by the Chinese government to promote marriage and fertility may face increasing resistance from unmarried, childless people as they perceive family formation to be incompatible with a bleak future. --- Event Details: https://my.princeton.edu/rsvp?id=1960817